·Analysis of the economic and economic law environment in the decline of commercial vehicle market

In 2014, the cumulative production and sales of trucks (including complete vehicles, chassis and tractors) were 3,195,900 and 3,184,400 respectively, and the cumulative production and sales decreased by -7.86% and -8.92% respectively. Among them, the total production and sales of trucks totaled 2,433,300 and 2,435,500 respectively, and the total production and sales decreased by -10.04% and -10.62% respectively; the cumulative production and sales of tractors were 286,700 and 279,000 respectively, an increase of 9.36% over the same period of last year. And 5.93%; the cumulative production and sales of truck chassis was 475,900 and 468,900, respectively, and the production and sales decreased by -5.09% and -7.51% respectively.
In 2014, only semi-trailer tractors in the truck segment showed a positive growth of 5.93% and micro trucks (including chassis) showed a positive growth of 0.55%. Other models showed a downward trend. Medium-duty trucks (including chassis) and light trucks (including chassis) - 12.87% of the decline exceeded the overall truck market - 8.92% decline.
In 2014, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars (complete vehicle + chassis) were 607,200 and 606,900, respectively. The cumulative production and sales increased by 7.63 percent and 8.37 percent year-on-year; the production and sales of passenger cars were 529,500 and 529,600 respectively. The growth rate of passenger car chassis was 77,700 units and 77,400 units, and the total production and sales decreased by -3.54% and -5.46%.
Heavy trucks In 2014, the cumulative production and sales volume of heavy-duty trucks (including complete vehicles, chassis and tractors) were 747,500 and 740,400 respectively, and the total production and sales decreased by -1.73% and -3.89% respectively.
Medium-sized trucks In 2014, the cumulative production and sales volume of medium-sized trucks (including various types of chassis) were 247,900 and 247,900, respectively. The production and sales decreased by -13.16% and -13.60% respectively.
Light trucks In 2014, the cumulative production and sales volume of light-duty trucks (including various types of chassis) were 1,661,700 and 1,662,600 respectively, and the total production and sales decreased by -12.31% and -12.87% respectively.
Mini-vehicles In 2014, the cumulative production and sales volume of mini-loaded trucks (including various types of chassis) were 539,900 units and 529,900 units respectively. The cumulative production and sales increased by -2.17% and -0.55% respectively.
In 2014, the overall production of passenger cars totaled 60.72 units, an increase of 7.64% year-on-year; cumulative sales of 60.69 units, an increase of 8.37%. Among them, large passenger cars (including chassis) accumulated sales of 84,300 units, an increase of 3.15%; medium-sized passenger cars (including chassis) accumulated sales of 79,612 units, down 11.62% year-on-year; light passenger vehicles (including chassis) accumulated sales of 443,054 units, a year-on-year increase 14.10%. In 2014, the cumulative production of minibuses was 2,233,000 and the cumulative sales were 2,258,300, a year-on-year increase of -11.58% and -9.38%.
In 2014, large passenger cars produced a total of 80,700 units, an increase of 1.85% year-on-year; cumulative sales of 81,400 units, an increase of 2.98%. In 2014, the total number of chassis of the passengers was 2,808, with a total sales of 2,825, an increase of 7.30% and 8.11% respectively.
In 2014, the medium-sized passenger car produced a total of 61,600 units, a year-on-year increase of -13.45%; the cumulative sales volume was 62,700 units, a year-on-year increase of -9.60%. In 2014, the total production of medium-sized passenger car chassis was 17,221 units, a year-on-year decrease of -17.10%; the cumulative sales volume was 16,918 units, a year-on-year decrease of -18.38%.
In 2014, light passenger vehicles produced a total of 387,300 units, an increase of 16.20% year-on-year; cumulative sales of 385,400 units, an increase of 16.86% year-on-year. In 2014, the cumulative production and sales of light bus chassis were 5.71 and 5.85 respectively, and the cumulative growth of production and sales was 0.89% and -1.48%, respectively.
In 2014, the total production of minibuses was 2,233,000 units, down by -11.58% year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume was 2,258,300 units, down by 9.38% year-on-year.
After experiencing the “virtual fire” of micro-growth in 2012 and 2013, the Chinese commercial vehicle market in 2014 ushered in an unfavorable situation and market structure. The industry agrees that commercial vehicles are like China's real economy. From the perspective of car owners, commercial vehicles are both production materials and labor tools. From a macroeconomic perspective, commercial vehicles are both a barometer of the national economy and a weathervane for policies and regulations. It is greatly affected by the macro economy. Therefore, we can understand the macroeconomic development trend and future development trend of China through the rise and fall of commercial vehicles.
In 2014, the commercial vehicle market faced a decline in the “troika” economic indicators such as consumption, investment and exports. The road freight and passenger traffic also showed a downward trend, resulting in a weak overall market demand. At the same time, the national IV emission policy that transcends the national conditions from the reality of inferior oil products, the suppression of counterfeit country IV and the counterfeit and shoddy urea, the increase in cost caused by the implementation of the national IV emission standards and the insufficient production preparation of the manufacturers, the second and third tier cities Its restrictions, as well as the illegal fines and fees of roads and bridges across the country, the yellow standard car scouring, the light truck upgrades the national IV emission standard, increasing the manufacturing cost, the cost of car purchase and the use of maintenance costs, thus inhibiting the demand for the light truck market, etc. This has added a lot of uncertain factors to the truck industry, which has led to the direct decline of heavy, medium, light and micro truck production and sales. As the light trucks with a production and sales volume of 1.66 million units accounted for a higher proportion of the overall trucks, the negative growth rate of -13% was the main cause of the rapid decline in the overall truck market.
In 2014, the cumulative sales of large passenger cars totaled 81,400 units, an increase of 3% year-on-year. As the smallest growth of the niche model in the overall market, Da Ke is mainly responsible for the replacement of some traditional fuel (diesel) buses with large pollution by the clean new energy of the major cities and the National IV engine buses. In addition, the advancement of the urbanization process has enabled urban public transport and road passenger transport to maintain a stable demand level and promote the growth of passenger cars.
In 2014, the whole vehicle and chassis market of medium-sized passenger cars both fell, and the main causes were basically the same as those of big customers. In particular, the market demand for the Chinese-owned chassis-type logistics vehicles and special-purpose modified vehicles shrank, which led to the decline in the sales of Chinese passengers. one of the reasons. In addition, the reduction in demand for the mid-keke school bus and passenger-type passenger market has also had a negative impact on its market.
In 2014, the only growth model was a light passenger car. The main reason was that mainstream light bus companies could make domestic IV diesel engines, many of which were high pressure common rail type. Therefore, the national IV diesel engine type light passenger support is relatively popular; the second is that the gasoline engine type light passenger accounted for 60%, so there is no high pollution situation; the third is the light passenger type school bus and van type logistics vehicle increased year-on-year; The export volume has also expanded compared with previous years; the fifth is the large increase in the sales volume of European light passengers; the sixth is the new entry into the light passenger sector and the emergence of new products, which has stimulated the growth of the light passenger market.
In 2014, the traditional minibus market continued to decline in inertia. The sales of micro-buses that were derived from quasi-MPVs increased significantly, thus reducing the market share of traditional micro-customers. In addition, the indirect impact of the economic-grade short-axis low-top Japanese sea lion light passengers and low-end pickup trucks has had a negative impact on minibuses.
In 2015, in the "new normal" development stage of China's economy, under the influence of overall economic development and no major industrial policies, it is expected that commercial vehicles may still be in a state of micro-growth or micro-negative growth in 2015.

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