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On July 22, related persons from the Ministry of Commerce disclosed to the “Investors†reporter: “The issue of whether the export tax rebate rate has been raised so far has not yet been determined. However, for all export tax refund policies, it is impossible to return to the previous tax rate level. Because the direction of China's economic development in the future is to adjust the structure, the textile industry must not be always in such a processing trade position to upgrade, so even if a new export tax rebate policy is introduced, it is only a fine adjustment of the policy. It is impossible to make major changes."
The source pointed out that the policy direction of the Ministry of Commerce is to further refine the classification of the taxation numbers of goods subject to export tax rebates. The export tax rebate rate will be fine-tuned in more refined products, but it will not be widely used by the industry as a whole. Adjusted.
Policy is gradually clear
At the end of last year, the Ministry of Commerce rushed to the area of ​​Jiangsu and Zhejiang and began an investigation of the small and medium-sized textile industry. In April this year, a large-scale survey was conducted with major ministries and commissions including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. The most heard reactions were: the appreciation of the renminbi, the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate, the adjustment of the processing trade policy, the implementation of the new labor law, and the increase in the cost of land, and a series of policies that had a negative effect on the textile industry were all intensively introduced last year. There was also a weakening of the demand brought about by the subprime mortgage crisis. All these factors combined to make small and medium-sized textile companies agonize. With the increase in the price of oil and electricity, the cost of production materials at the source of the company has increased and the corporate response has become even greater.
This industry survey of the Ministry of Commerce has certain criteria for judgment: First, on the whole, whether there has been a significant decline in employment and production capacity in the textile industry; secondly, it is necessary to classify companies that have problems, whether all enterprises Have problems? Is there a differentiation in those companies that have their own intellectual property and export brands, high technological content, and the kind of complete low-end processing companies? If it is the latter type of company that has died on a large scale, and the former type of company has not suffered losses or suffered minor losses, it is normal and reasonable and there is no need to worry.
According to the above sources, in the survey, most companies also realized that there is no way out for returning. Most enterprises hope that they will not introduce all policies unfavorable to the textile and clothing industry in the short term. Because it is too intensive to introduce such policies, coupled with the deterioration of the international environment, the pressure on companies will be too great. More requirements are: First, the policy should not be too intensive; second, the introduction of domestic policies and international unfavorable environment should not collide, so as not to create the potential for internal and external attacks. Third, enterprises recognize that economic restructuring is the trend of the times. Under the circumstances, the introduction of a policy needs to be stabilized for a period of time to ensure that the company has a buffer period.
Therefore, the country has recently fine-tuned various policies. For example, interest rates and reserve ratios have not been raised again, and the appreciation of the renminbi has also started to slow down. This is because the company has been relaxed. For some time in the future, it is unlikely that another policy will be introduced to make corporate funds more tense. The focus of work shifts to ensure that companies can smoothly digest the pressure.
The source pointed out that the Ministry of Commerce has not yet proposed raising the export tax rebate rate. The main reason is that the situation is not very clear: The first is the external environment - whether the impact of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has ended, how much the global economy is slowing down, how large the economic crisis in neighboring countries such as Vietnam is, and how much is not clear; second, global Whether or not inflation will continue, and third, whether policies can continue to absorb these pressures as a whole as policies do not continue to tighten. If these factors are stable, the possibility of raising the export tax rebate rate is also zero.
Adjusting the export tax rebate rate has little effect
Since 2008, due to factors such as the appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs, reduction in export tax rebate rates, and reduction in external demand, the industry's profit margin has plummeted. According to the statistics of China Textile Industry Association, under the influence of various factors, the actual profit rate of two-thirds of the enterprises in the entire industry is only 0.62%.
Since July this year, the central leadership has conducted intensive research on housing enterprises. In early July, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council went to Jiangsu and Shanghai, Vice President Xi Jinping went to Guangdong, Vice Premier Wang Qishan went to Shandong, and Minister of Commerce Chen Deming went to Wenzhou to conduct research in succession.
During the investigation, Wen Jiabao pointed out: First, we must effectively change the mode of economic development, speed up structural adjustment, grasp the key points, rhythm, and strength of macroeconomic regulation, keep the economy developing steadily and rapidly for a long time, and avoid big ups and downs. Inflation issues. Subsequently, the media set off an upsurge of "the textile industry is about to raise the export tax rebate rate." However, an interview with the "Investor" reporter found that many companies still hold a wait-and-see attitude toward the "export tax rebate increase policy."
Xucun Town, Haining City, Zhejiang Province, which has the reputation of “China's town for commonersâ€, is a concentrated area for small and medium-sized textile enterprises. The mayor Yuan Jie, in an interview with the “Investor Daily†reporter, said: “It is only 2 percentage points higher for enterprises. The impact is not great, because only the export tax rebate rate increases, the contribution to profits may be only a few percentage points, and the failed companies will still be closed down, and those who can survive will still be able to live."
Shi Chengyi, general manager of Hangzhou Xiaoshan Phoenix Textile Co., Ltd., also told the “Investor†reporter: “For companies, increasing the tax rebate is always good. However, in the face of RMB appreciation and rising financial costs, only increase 2 The percentage point is too small.†He said that since the beginning of this year, the monetary base has tightened and the financial cost has increased by 10% to more than 15%. The increase in the price of raw materials has increased the cost of raw materials by 10% to 20%. The implementation of the new labor law has increased labor costs by about 30%. As a result, overall costs have increased by 15% to 20%. And these increases are only due to the 2% rise in export tax rebates, which is obviously not enough. If the previous company's profit was 30%, it is now only about 10%. "If the profit is less than 10%, then there is nothing to do." Shi Chengzhao reluctantly said, "The current approach is that we hope that customers can afford about 15% in the second half, but this requires a process. If there is no way to raise prices If you do, you can't do it, you can do it, you can't do it, or do it. The current method is to make small batches and multi-batch production to reduce risk."
In a rough calculation, even according to the most conservative algorithm, textiles and clothing will only increase by two percentage points and increase to 13%. In the five months after 2007, the state will refund 8 billion yuan in taxes to enterprises, and the whole country in 2009 The amount of tax to be refunded will reach 19 billion yuan. And some of these tax refunds are not fully accountable to the business. Because for many SMEs that do not have bargaining power, once the export tax rebate rate increases, the buyer will ask to reduce the unit price of the goods. In this way, the taxes refunded by the state to enterprises are equal to subsidizing foreigners in disguise.
Liu Weijun, an analyst of GF Securities's textile and clothing industry, concluded: "The increase in export tax rebates can only play a short-term role for companies. The appreciation of the renminbi and rising costs are the most fundamental burden on companies."
The first requirement is a stable exchange rate
Many people in the industry have stated that the main cause of the plight of the textile and garment industry is the rapid appreciation of the renminbi. Therefore, even if the export tax rebate rate is raised by 2 to 4 percentage points, it will not be able to make up for the losses of textile companies. Since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the cumulative appreciation of the renminbi has reached 16%, and this year it has appreciated by 7%. Just increasing the value of a lot of companies into a loss.
"The exchange rate is the biggest negative impact on the textile industry," said Mary Li, an analyst with the clothing industry of Galaxy Securities, who told the "Investors" reporter: "Export tax rebate is a small thing. The magnitude of RMB appreciation is too great if the price of the enterprise is too high." If the rate of increase cannot keep up with the appreciation of the renminbi, it will mean that the price of the enterprise will be reduced in disguise."
The situation this year is worse than in previous years. Last year, China’s peripheral countries, such as India and Vietnam, appreciated their currencies against the US dollar. This year is depreciated. Only the renminbi appreciates. The pressure on companies is even greater.
The mayor of Xucun Town, Yuan Jie, calculated for us: The original exchange rate between the renminbi and the U.S. dollar was at 8 o'clock, plus the export tax rebate, which was more than 9 yuan. Now even with the export tax rebate, it is only around 7 yuan. The difference is more than 2.5 yuan. This has a great impact on the business. Since the beginning of this year, the production of home textile enterprises in Xucun Town has shrunk dramatically. It has now reached a point of no growth. The anticipation of the appreciation of the renminbi has made the company more wait-and-see status, and orders have not been answered. Even if the exchange rate has stabilized, or if it has introduced an export tax rebate policy, there is also a process that cannot be immediately apparent. Only when it is confirmed that the currency value is stable, will the company increase production. ""
Another hidden danger caused by the rapid appreciation of the renminbi is that companies do not dare to take orders, because picking up orders may not only make money, but may also lose money. Guo Yi, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Hengyi Petrochemical Co., Ltd., told the “Investor Daily†reporter: “The export orders of domestic foreign trade companies are not dare to pick up, and the most important factor is the appreciation of the renminbi. If the orders are received, production needs a The period is generally around 3 months, and after 3 months and other products have been produced, the appreciation of the renminbi has wiped out all the profits."
In addition to stabilizing the exchange rate, the provision of credit support is also an effective measure to help SMEs emerge from their predicament. Last week, when Premier Wen Jiabao said in his survey in Guangzhou, “The non-public ownership of SMEs in Guangdong Province is relatively developed. At present, SMEs face more difficulties. They must increase support from credit, fiscal and taxation, and industrial policies. Support and cultivate a group of small and medium-sized enterprises with growth potential."
Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Relations and Development of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said in favor of this measure when interviewed by an investor reporter. He said: "If credit is not relaxed, these SMEs may go private financing, or lend to each other, the cost is high. This is a very harmful business environment for enterprises. Therefore, the credit should also be for SMEs. Active support."
Industrial integration must be the way
According to sources from the Ministry of Commerce who participated in the survey, many textile companies have realized that this dilemma is an inevitable source of pain when industrial upgrading and economic restructuring take place. What companies need to do is to optimize their industrial structure to adapt to this change.
Zhang Bin, a senior analyst in the textile industry at Guojin Securities, also holds the same view. He said: “It is still too early to raise export tax rebates. Now we can use this opportunity to integrate the textile industry and remove excess production capacity.†It is believed that the state uses macro-control measures to protect good companies and eliminates bad companies in the survival of the fittest. Now the industry's profit margins have fallen, but listed companies and big companies are still making profits, and all those who die are small companies with poor profitability. Historically, the textile and apparel industry has been shifting to cheaper labor costs. Previously transferred from the coast to the interior, it is now likely to be a process of transferring from the domestic to the foreign. In the meantime, good companies have transformed, and poor companies have died.
GF Securities textile industry analyst Liu Weijun told the “Investor†reporter: “Whether the export tax rebate or the policy of stabilizing the exchange rate, if the textile industry has always played a price war, it is not enough to manufacture only low-tech products, like Japan and Italy. The textile companies in the country have also faced the same problems, and they have achieved corporate transformation by increasing the added value of their products."
However, Liu Weijun also expressed concern that the industrial chain of the Chinese textile industry is the most complete in the world. Therefore, the transfer time will be longer, the difficulty will be even greater, and more companies will die. And even if it is transferred outwards, the regional companies that have taken over will also have a process of gradual growth, which cannot be accomplished overnight.
Adjustment of Game Export Tax Rebate Policy of the Ministry of Commerce
Recently, rumors that the export tax rebate will be raised in the textile industry have been raised by major media. The rumors even clarified that "the textile export tax rebate rate may be raised by 2% to 13%; the clothing export tax rebate rate will be raised by 4% to 15%, and the textile raw material viscose fiber will be raised from the current 5% to 15%. Finally, The results will be known in late July or early August." But today, this rumor has not been confirmed. The “Investor†reporter asked the major development departments of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, but they did not get a clear answer.