How Far Can Cars Go?

Leading cows should keep their noses. For Beijing to stop blocking, the key lies in "restricted use" rather than "limited purchase."

Those who have experienced a planned economy should be familiar with the government’s administrative “restrictions” and are no strangers to it. I remember when I was in college in 1979, rice, cotton cloth, sugar, etc. were all supplied with tickets (plan vouchers). If there is money or no ticket, the shop will never sell you. The strange thing is that not many people complained about it at the time. Unexpectedly, four years ago, when Beijing introduced a car purchase restriction order, it was immediately discussed. There were people who clashed and applauded. Some were angry and indignant. Recently, some media have been asking my opinions. I didn't want to write an article, but I have always been evasive and disrespectful. I would like to talk about it again and again. Let me talk about my opinion here.

To be honest, at the beginning, I did not care about Beijing's purchase of cars. First, it seems to me that this is only a local land policy and it involves a lot; the second is that I am not waiting to buy a car and I don’t care much about myself. Can attend the Haidian District People's Assembly at the beginning of the year and heard many delegates have opinions on "car purchase restrictions." Of course, everyone was not targeting the “restricted purchase” of the car at the time, but it was considered that the current method of buying a car with a Yaohao was not desirable. For example, a family of three has already bought two cars, and another family has not bought a car. Although it is now possible to use the ID card to shake hands, the winning percentage is too low. Therefore, it is unfair to the family who had not bought a car before.

Later they participated in the Beijing People’s Congress. At the meeting, another questioned the restriction on the purchase of motor vehicles. It was pointed out that the city’s original intention was good, but it wanted to ease the traffic pressure in the city. However, from the effect point of view, they missed each other and caused a series of negative reactions. . Yes, although the purchase restriction order was implemented for only a few months, some of the drawbacks have been clearly revealed today. Some experts estimate that if this policy is not immediately changed, sales revenue in Beijing will decrease by 60 billion yuan annually, and fiscal revenue will decrease by 6 billion yuan annually. As to the number of people who are unemployed, no official figure is found. However, it is conceivable that with the closure of a large number of 4S shops, many people will be unemployed and, eventually, how many auto workers will be laid off. It is still unclear and it is not easy to speculate.

Of course, I do not mean that Beijing should stop blocking. Living in Beijing, traffic congestion is miserable. How can I disapprove the problem? What we want to discuss here is whether or not we have to restrict the purchase of cars. Or is it the best way to limit purchases? To be honest, I am not optimistic about the purchase restriction. It is not denied that car purchase restrictions will help alleviate the traffic congestion at least, but at least reduce the traffic pressure in cities in the future. However, there are still two problems that cannot be solved: First, if Beijing is already overcrowded, it will continue to block even if it no longer adds new cars. ,How to do? Second, although the "shaking hand" is an equal opportunity for buying a car, it does not matter whether it is prioritized or not. Why do some people urgently need to use a car and do not win it?

If we think deeper, there are actually two sets of benefits to be weighed in here: one is the interest of the car group and the carless group; the second is the interest of car groups and the car-going group. Economics talks about resource allocation. The optimal state is the well-known Pareto standard. The standard states that the optimal state of welfare allocation means that under any given state of resource allocation, no change can make at least one. The condition of the person becomes better without making anyone's condition worse. From this point of view, the automobile purchase restriction takes care of the interests of the car-free groups, but also takes care of the interests of the car-carried groups, but at the same time it restricts the interests of car-goers. Some people are happy about someone being paralyzed. Obviously it is not the best configuration of benefits.

Indeed, this is a dilemma. Imagine if the government did not impose restrictions on the purchase of cars and let people open their purchases. Those who want to buy a car are of course happy, but people who don’t buy a car have to suffer traffic congestion and complain. From this point of view, no matter whether the government purchases or not, it will inevitably hurt the interests of some people. To put it professionally, there are Pareto standards that are contrary to the allocation of resources. Difficulties, then what should the government do? In my opinion, the government actually does not have to limit purchases, or that the restriction of purchases is not the only choice to stop the blockage, nor is it the best choice. At least, the market economy advocates the freedom of buying and selling, and the government uses administrative measures to limit purchases.

I can understand the government’s hardships, so it will be the case. The city government is also forced to help and it is a last resort. However, recently, when reading newspapers, many people offered advice and suggestions on how to stop the problem. I was deeply impressed by the fact that one advocates charging for motor vehicles during rush hours, such as commuting; the other is suggesting staggered commuting hours. It should be said that both methods are desirable, but I think it will be difficult to operate. For example, how do you charge for the peak period? Do you want to set up a toll booth in the city? If that is no different fuel, traffic will be more congested; if electronic systems are charged, then there will be a lot of investment. As for staggering work and commuting, it is good and the vehicles can be diverted. However, the time of commute is different, and the government operation will inevitably be inconvenient.

Or say my opinion. It can't be called whimsy, and it's easy to do. Looking down, traffic jams need only one move, which is a substantial increase in parking charges. Recently discussed with friends, someone asked, Beijing parking is not a long time fee? Why is the traffic still crowded? My answer is because the fees are not high enough. If you drive to work now, if you are driving to work now, the parking fee will be 5 yuan per hour, 40 yuan a day, 10 yuan for gasoline, a total of 50 yuan; if you need 70 yuan for rent, you will certainly have to drive by yourself. However, if the parking fee is increased from 5 yuan to 15 yuan per hour, the parking fee is only 120 yuan a day. Will you drive to work in the future?

At the Municipal People's Congress, some representatives mentioned a situation, saying that some government agencies or commercial buildings have built-in parking lots. Even if the fees are raised, they may not be enforced. For example, some shopping centers attract customers and parking lots. It is still free. Suddenly listening, this is indeed a bit difficult to handle, but it is not difficult to ponder carefully. What I think of is a heavy tax on parking lots. As long as taxes are high enough, "free parking" will certainly not continue. But also two birds with one stone: not only restrict people from driving to work; at the same time, they can also use the income tax revenue to improve public transport. In a sense, this is also a kind of indirect compensation for car-free groups.

As the saying goes, the cows should keep their noses. Yes, the key to Beijing’s blockade is “restricted use” rather than “limited purchase”. Just think, if the cost of vehicles is greatly increased, people's cars will be reduced, and the use of cars will be restrained, and consumers who buy cars will be able to figure out where they can use the labor government to manage them personally!

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