China's auto production and sales are expected to reach 50 million in the future

After our calculation, in the next few years, the peak value of China's annual average automobile production and sales volume is expected to reach 50 million vehicles. Yesterday, the “2011 China Blue Book of the Automotive Industry” published jointly by the Department of Industrial Economics of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the China Automotive Engineering Society, and the Volkswagen Group (China) was released, and the State Council’s development in the prediction of the future Chinese automobile industry. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the research center, said bluntly.

The report shows that the gap between the international competitiveness of China's auto industry and the developed countries is gradually narrowing, and on the basis of setting the maximum global competitiveness of the global auto industry to be 100, the international competitiveness score of China's auto industry will reach 58.23 in 2009 and 2000. Compared to 26.47 of the year, it has increased by 1.2 times.

However, in the face of signs of a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese auto market this year, industry experts are still optimistic. Liu Shijin believes that in recent years, China's automobile industry has developed rapidly, with a growth rate of 50% in 2009 and a 30% growth rate in 2010. This year, various incentive policies have been withdrawn from the market and a few major cities have imposed purchase restrictions. Below, it is normal for the growth rate to slow down.

“We expect that the growth rate of the auto market this year will still be around 10%, which should be higher than the growth rate of China's GDP this year,” said Liu Shijin.

Therefore, for the rumored government is about to consider once again the rumors of a favorable policy to stimulate the auto market, Liu Shijin thinks that the possibility is not big. “The state’s encouraging policies to promote purchase can only be considered as a short-term and secondary factor. There are two main reasons for the sustainable development of the automotive industry: first, the steady increase in demand for automobiles; second, the competitive supply system is capable of maximizing the production potential. With these two factors, the average annual production and sales volume has exceeded 50 million even Higher, there will be no doubt."

As for the future position of China's auto industry in the global industrial structure, Liu Shijin predicts that China will become the world's largest auto exporter and will have a place in the new energy auto field.

The timeline “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan” is about to come out. The industry still has various disputes over which kind of new energy automobile development path China takes. It is reported that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology all have their own views on the future technology path.

Yesterday, Fu Youwu, executive vice chairman and secretary-general of the Chinese Association of Automobile Engineers, said that the development path of the EU's new energy vehicles is more in line with the development status of the global automotive industry, that is, travel ranges from 0 to 4 kilometers to promote walking, and 4 to 200 kilometers are recommended for use. For small-sized pure electric vehicles, 200-400 km is recommended for the development of plug-in hybrid and extended-range electric vehicles, and the use of internal combustion engines for more than 400 km.

To this end, Fu Yuwu disclosed that the Ministry of Science and Technology is about to organize a small-scale pure electric vehicle alliance. The secretariat is located in the Automotive Engineering Society. “The alliance members include BYD (33.05, 0.00, 0.00%) and other vehicle and battery manufacturers.”

However, the industry is doubtful as to how much the alliance can play. Previously, in the field of new energy vehicles, there have been the TOP10 alliance led by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the “National Electric Vehicle Industry Alliance” established by the SASAC. Substantial results.